Lumentum DCF Valuation
A simplified version of my DCF analysis for Lumentum to test growth assumptions with.
Summary
This is the simplified valuation model behind my Seeking Alpha article “Lumentum: Sold Out Is Not the Same as Scalable” (26 October 2026, rated Hold). It asks whether Lumentum can turn record demand into scalable earnings when its growth depends on indium phosphide fab capacity, and what the share price assumes about that.
Link to the Google Sheets workbook: Lumentum DCF Model
In the model, you can adjust three scenarios. Scenario 1 is closest to management’s guidance. Scenario 2 is based on consensus growth estimates, and Scenario 3 is the capacity-constrained base.
The sheet can look slightly intimidating, but the adjustable numbers are marked in blue. The growth rates for the projected periods are in the lower sheet segment, and for projected years 6-10, you can adjust the growth rates in the top segment.
This should let you adjust your growth estimates and see the results in the sensitivity tables.
If you have any questions or feedback, just comment on SeekingAlpha or send me a message!
European Industry, Semiconductors, Capital Allocation
Research on European and global industrial firms and the semiconductor supply chain.
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